Spring is in sight
The sea is at its lowest temperature in February, so coastal areas often have their coldest weather this month. Temperatures inland are usually at their lowest in January, but it can still be very cold now. There is a risk of frost everywhere, but at the same time there are signs of approaching spring, with bulbs appearing and birds and wildlife waking up as light levels increase.
Temperature
The last three years have seen generally above average temperatures in February, ranging from means of 2°C (37°F) in the coldest parts of Scotland, to means of 5.5°C (42°F) in south eastern and central England. Maximum temperatures in southeast England reached 8.3°C (46°F) in 2004. Minimum temperatures have not dropped below –0.7°C (30°F) (Scotland, 2003), and many regions saw no frost at all.
The Met Office is predicting a 66% chance of colder than average temperatures for winter 2005-2006, owing to a predicted negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climatic phenomenon whereby cold air is displaced from the northern polar region to the temperate northern hemisphere. This oscillation can be ‘positive’, when the coldest winter air is in the far north, or ‘negative’, when the coldest air is in the temperate north (including Europe). A negative oscillation is predicted this winter. Temperatures could therefore be well below those of recent years. The last three years have seen February temperatures between 0.5 and 2°C above average. Below average temperatures could therefore end up being 1-4°C less than the higher temperatures we have become used to.
Interestingly, a negative NAO could result in milder weather for Scotland, with colder temperatures in England and Wales.
Do make sure that all your winter protections for the garden, for the greenhouse and for tender plants, are still securely in place.
Days of fieldwork (i.e. whole useable days in the garden) may be fewer than we might hope for February, which can otherwise be a useful month (in mild areas) for starting seedlings under cover and preparing the ground for spring. Don’t forget that wet and windy weather can worsen conditions for gardening, and make already low temperatures feel colder than they actually are.
Don’t be in too much of a hurry to sow and plant. Seeds started off later, when the soil is warmer, will catch up and overtake those sown too early in the season.
Rain
We have generally had average or below average rainfall in recent Februaries. Mean February rainfall varies from 130mm in northern Scotland, to 115mm in Wales, 110mm in southwest England, 57mm in the Midlands and southeast/south-central England, to 37mm in East Anglia.
Be aware that freezing spells (this month or the preceding winter months) may have made the ground water unavailable to plant roots. Plants could be on the dry side, despite the winter weather. Warm water makes effective irrigation in freezing conditions, especially for pots and containers. But only do this where absolutely necessary (e.g. for autumn-planted evergreens that are struggling to establish).
Wind
Gales and gustiness are frequent in February.
Plants can suffer from ‘wind rock’ at the roots, which affects their health and vigour the following spring. Stakes, ties, fleece wraps, cloches, supports and wayward branches all need regular checking.
Sunshine
Light levels are on the rise again. In mild areas it is possible to start vegetable and flower seedlings off under cover, for planting out in March. Bulbs are appearing, and wildlife is responding to the seasonal flux.
The last three Februaries have been sunnier than average, and, in many places, exceptionally so. It could be different this year, as the predicted negative NAO makes for an unpredictable scenario.
Average sunshine levels for February range from 71 hours in southeast and south-central England, to 66 hours in southwest England, 64 hours in East Anglia, 61 hours in the Midlands, 59 hours in northern England and southern Scotland, and 51 hours in northern Scotland. Northern Ireland can expect 62 hours, and Wales can expect a mean of 65 hours of sunshine.
Houseplants still need to be kept in the sunniest position available - they can be moved later in the spring to their shadier summer positions.