Gardening in a changing climate
News
A typical British summer
The coming summer is expected to be a 'typical British summer', according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are more likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average for the three months of summer.
However, the risk of exceptional rainfall on the same scale as the summer of last year remains a very low probability. The Met Office is continuing to work with the Environment Agency, SEPA and others across government to ensure that we are ready to meet the challenges that severe weather may present us at any time of the year.
Government Services Director at the Met Office, Rob Varley said: "Our long-range forecasts are proving useful to a range of people, such as emergency planners and the water industry, in order to help them plan ahead. They are not forecasts that can be used to plan a summer holiday or inform an outdoor event."
Head of Forecasting at the Met Office, Brian Golding said: "Seasonal forecasting is a difficult thing to do and this places some limitations on our forecasts. Our predictions for last autumn, winter and spring have all given accurate advice, giving more confidence in our latest summer forecast."
Background
The forecast for Summer 2008 has been derived using a number of global forecasting models and statistical methods. Prediction skill for rainfall in particular is quite low at this stage, but the forecast provides an early opportunity to increase awareness so that the Met Office and its customers can plan ahead. It is important to be aware of subsequent updates when new information may change the forecast emphasis.
The main feature of Summer 2007 was the high rainfall experienced in many regions, especially during June and July. For parts of England and Wales, notably the Midlands, it was the wettest summer since the national and regional rainfall series began in 1914. Temperatures last summer were near the 1971-2000 average. However, against the background of warming climate, Summer 2007 was relatively cool - the coolest since 1998.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Summer, in this context, is defined as the months of June, July and August. Seasonal trends affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
European forecast for Summer 2008
Temperature and rainfall
For north-western Europe, early indications suggest a slightly enhanced risk of more unsettled spells than usual with average or above-average rainfall. In contrast, rainfall is more likely to be below average over much of southern and eastern Europe. Mean summer temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over much of the European region, with the highest probabilities of warmer than average over Mediterranean regions.
UK forecast for Summer 2008
Temperature
Mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average. However, there is a slightly enhanced chance of cloudier and cooler spells.
Rainfall
Rainfall is more likely to be either near average or above average. The risk of exceptional rainfall, as seen last summer, is assessed as very low at this stage.