Gardening in a changing climate

Projected UK rainfall

Percentage rainfall increase (based on 1961-1990 average) in summer and winter in 30-year periods centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Models show drier summers and wetter winters, with the South East worst affected. Given high emissions, rainfall may halve in summer and rise by 30 percent in winter.
Top row: low-emissions scenario: global carbon dioxide emissions controlled to below 525 parts per million by 2080 (current level 370ppm).
Bottom row: high-emissions scenario, global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise at current rates of increase, reaching 810ppm by 2080.

Summer

Summer rainfall changes

2011 - 2040 2041 - 2070 2071 - 2100

Key

30 - 35%
30 - 35%
25 - 30% 25 - 30%
20 - 25% 20 - 25%
15 - 20% 15 - 20%
10 - 15% 10 - 15%
0 - 10% 0 - 10%
-10 - 0% -10 - 0%
-10 - -20% -10 - -20%
-20 - -30% -20 - -30%
-30 - -40% -30 - -40%
-40 - -50% -40 - -50%
-50 - -60% -50 - -60%
Changes within ‘natural’ variability Changes within ‘natural’ variability

 

Winter

Winter rainfall changes
2011 - 2040 2041 - 2070 2071 - 2100
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